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Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the basic reproduction number for Avian Influenza outbreak in local and global poultry industries. In this concern, we apply the SEIAVR compartmental model which is developed based on the well-known SEIR model. The SEIAVR model provides the mathematical formulations of the basic reproduction number, final size relationship and a relationship between these two phenomena. The developed model Equations are solved numerically with the help of Range-Kutta method and the values of initial parameters are taken from the several literatures and reports. The calculated result of basic reproduction number shows that it is locally and globally stable if it is less than and greater than one at disease free equilibrium and at endemic equilibrium, respectively. Furthermore, we have compared among the calculated susceptive, expose, infective, removal, virus and asymptotic compartments where infection rate and expose period are observed very sensitive compared to other parameters. In addition, the model result of infective is compared with the field data and other’s model where the present model shows good performance against the field data.

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