Abstract
Much time has gone into analyzing the 2015 Nigerian Presidential election, a veritable repeat of the 2011 election between incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Previous elections in Nigeria have been fraught with violence and charges of electoral fraud. While the Nigerian electoral commission worked hard to ensure that these elections were fair, violence and charges of fraud materialized. Electoral forensics applies statistical techniques to elections, frequently testing for evidence of fraud or of unfairness. Using binomial regression, we tested the official results from the 2015 Nigerian Presidential election for evidence of differential invalidation. Differential invalidation involves invalidating ballots based on whom they are cast. The results do not strictly indicate evidence of this type of electoral unfairness. The marginal p-values (0.1420 and 0.0346) only suggest that there may be a problem. Furthermore, the invalidation process in Ebonyi state appears to be completely different from that in other states. This leads one to wonder why that difference exists.
Recommended Citation
Ekanem, U. O., & Forsberg, O. J. (2017). An Analysis of the 2015 Nigerian Presidential Election. Pursue: Undergraduate Research Journal, 1(2). Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.pvamu.edu/pursue/vol1/iss2/1