Prediction of soil erosion risk using earth observation data under recent emission scenarios of CMIP6

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Geocarto International


The earth observation data and CMIP6 models were used to predict plausible soil loss from the Ghaghara river basin. The decadal prediction of soil loss (28.64 ton/ha/year) was found high for SSP585 of CanESM5 during 2015–2025. However, the lower value was reported as 21.71 ton/ha/year for SSP245 of MRI-ESM2-0 during 2035–2045. The century level future rainfall erosivity factor was found lowest for SSP245, however highest for SSP585 of Access-ESM1-5, CanESM5, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. The SSP585 (Access-ESM1-5, CanESM5, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) have maximum soil erosion rate as 29.07, 28.03, and 28.0 ton/ha/year, respectively. For the SSP585, increments were observed as 35.93%, 31.04%, and 30%, respectively, compared to the baseline year (2014). Whereas, lowest was reported as 21.7 and 24.9 ton/ha/year and consequently the low increment as 1.31% and 16.55% for both scenarios of MRI-ESM2-0 compared to baseline. We observed that the soil erosion rate is aligned with the predicted rainfall erosivity factor.



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